From Marketingcharts.org - full story here

Also see story below we linked to about the gross overestimates routine for online advertising.

US Online Ad Spend Set to Exceed Print (Update)

US online ad spending will exceed the total spent on print magazines and newspapers this year for the first time, according to a January 2012 eMarketer estimate that projects $39.5 billion in online ad spending, $19.4 billion in newspaper ad spending, and $15.4 billion in magazine ad spending. eMarketer estimates that online ad spending will continue its dramatic growth to reach $62 billion by 2016, while the print total will continue to decline to $32.3 billion that year.

US online ad spend is expected to grow by 23.3% this year, with double-digit growth continuing through 2014 before slowing to 8.9% in 2015 and 7.8% in 2016.

TV Growth Unaffected

As online ad spending grows, so will TV, albeit more slowly, notes eMarketer, which estimates that US TV spending will reach $72 billion in 2016. At that point, the gap between TV and online ad spending will be $10 billion, compared to the $28.7 billion gap seen in 2011.

Overall, eMarketer projects total media ad spending to grow 6.7% this year to $169.5 billion, boosted by national election campaigns and gains in mobile spending. Growth will remain between 3-4% through 2016, with spending reaching almost $200 billion by then. And while online will be a major driver of that growth, traditional ad spending will for the most part stagnate during the period.

Q1-Q3 ‘11 Ad Spend Up 1.5%

Total US advertising expenditures in the first 9 months of 2011 increased 1.5% from the previous year, finishing the period at $104.7 billion, according to December 2011 data from Kantar Media. Spending growth slowed during Q3, up 0.4% compared to 2010, after rising 4.1% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q2. Spending among the 10 largest advertisers in the first 9 months of 2011 was $11.8 billion, representing a 1.4% decline compared to the previous year. Procter & Gamble maintained its top-ranked position with spending of $2.1 billion through September, down 5.6% compared to 2010, although its Q3 spending was flat compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, expenditures for the 10 largest categories grew 3.1% in the first 9 months of 2011, to $59.5 billion. For Q3, the aggregate increase was 1.8%, although quarterly growth rates for 7 of the 10 categories trailed their year-to-date average. Automotive was the top category with $9.9 billion of spending during the 9-month period, up 7% from 2010. However, the bulk of the gain came early in the year, and from April through September automotive budgets grew just 1%.

TV Ad Spending Rises

Most forms of TV displayed spending gains in Q3 2011: expenditures on cable networks rose 6.5% during Q3, while year-to-date outlays grew 9.9%. Network TV registered its first quarterly gain of the year, as Q3 expenditures inched up 0.2%, although year-to-date expenditures remained down 5.7%. Kantar insight suggests higher budgets from movie studios and consumer package goods marketers accounted for the Q3 increase for network TV, while the year-to-date decline can be attributed to the loss of marquee college football and basketball programming to cable networks in Q1.

Meanwhile, ad spending in Spanish Language Television jumped 18% during Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, while syndication TV was also up 14.8% for the period. The only TV segment to lose ground was spot TV, where spending fell 5.7% year-over-year in Q3, and was also down 2.7% for the year-to-date.

Overall, compared to the corresponding periods in 2010, TV ad spending grew 2.3% for the year-to-date, and 3.2% for Q3.

The top 10 TV advertisers, led by Procter & Gamble, spent $7.3 billion in the medium during the first 9 months of 2011, up 0.1% from a year ago. The group accounted for 15% of total TV expenditures by all advertisers.

Most Other Media Also Post Gains

Outdoor spending slowed during the third quarter, but still registered gains of 3.2% for Q3 and 8.6% for the first 9 months. The pace of spending in radio media was more muted, but remained steady, up a modest 1.1% in Q3 and 1.2% for the year-to-date, driven by over 2% growth in local radio and network radio advertising.

Magazine media spending declined 1.2% for Q3, but rose 1.5% for the year-to-date. The top 10 magazine advertisers invested $2.7 billion in the medium for the year-to-date, a decrease of 2.8%. As a proportion of total magazine ad spending by all advertisers, the top 10 accounted for 17.1%.

Although the internet sector posted a Q3 2011 drop of 2.9% compared to last year, overall expenditures for the year-to-date were up 2.8% compared to a year earlier. Display ad expenditures soared 15.8% in Q3 and 10.1% for the year-to-date, offsetting paid search drops of 14.4% and 2.1%, respectively. The 10 largest internet advertisers, led by General Motors, invested a total of $1.8 billion in paid search and display campaigns, up 11.1% versus a year ago, and accounting for 10.8% share of all internet ad dollars.

Newspapers Fare Poorly

The newspaper sector posted the worst figures of all media, experiencing a 3.7% decline in spending in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, and 3.8% decrease for the year-to-date. Local newspapers, despite robust budgets from local auto dealers and an uptick in financial advertising, saw a 4.4% spending decline in Q3, and were down 3.9% year-to-date.

Print Media Get Spending, Lack Consumption

Meanwhile, according to December figures from eMarketer, although newspapers accounted for 15% of all US ad spending in 2011, they held just a 4% share of adults’ daily media time. Magazines also held a much larger share of ad spending than daily media time, at 9.7% and 2.8%, respectively.

By contrast, eMarketer estimated that mobile accounted for 10.1% share of adults’ media time each day, but less than 1% of ad dollars. TV (42.5% vs. 42.2%), internet (25.9% vs. 21.9%), and radio (14.6% vs. 10.9%) all also displayed a higher share of adults’ daily time than share of US ad spending.

eMarketer notes that time spent with the internet excludes internet access via mobile, but online ad spending includes mobile internet ad spending. As such, the total of the ad spending share for all the media adds up to more than 100%.

Marketers More Bullish Than Agencies on Traditional Media Spend

A greater proportion of marketers than agencies believe that spending on traditional media such as direct mail (25% vs. 17%), print (22% vs. 8%), and radio (18% vs. 3%) will increase this year as compared to 2011, with the proportions expecting spend to increase on TV relatively on par, according to a survey released in January 2012 by RSW/US. And although the survey shows that increases in digital media spending will outpace that of traditional media, marketers’ planned increases do not appear to match agency expectations: a higher proportion of agencies than marketers expect spending to increase in social media (89% vs. 63%), mobile (72% vs. 46%), SEO (66% vs. 48%), and banner advertising (55% vs. 30%).

According to December 2011 figures from Kantar Media, outdoor (3.2%), TV (3.2%), and radio (1.1%) led all media in Q3 2011 year-over-year ad spend gains, while internet and newspaper ad spending declined 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively.

Report from MarketingCharts.com shows spending and consumption down year over year in print from 2010 to 2011. 

From MarketingCharts.com. Full story here

Total US advertising expenditures in the first 9 months of 2011 increased 1.5% from a year ago, finishing the period at $104.7 billion, according to December 2011 data from Kantar Media. Spending growth slowed during Q3, up 0.4% compared to last year, after rising 4.1% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q2. Spending among the 10 largest advertisers in the first 9 months of 2011 was $11.8 billion, representing a 1.4% decline compared to a year ago. Procter & Gamble maintained its top-ranked position with spending of $2.1 billion through September, down 5.6% compared to last year, although its Q3 spending was flat compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, expenditures for the 10 largest categories grew 3.1% in the first 9 months of 2011, to $59.5 billion. For Q3, the aggregate increase was 1.8%, although quarterly growth rates for 7 of the 10 categories trailed their year-to-date average. Automotive was the top category with $9.9 billion of spending during the 9-month period, up 7% from 2010. However, the bulk of the gain came early in the year, and from April through September automotive budgets have grown just 1%.

TV Ad Spending Rises

Most forms of TV displayed spending gains in Q3: expenditures on cable networks rose 6.5% during Q3, while year-to-date outlays grew 9.9%. Network TV registered its first quarterly gain of the year, as Q3 expenditures inched up 0.2%, although year-to-date expenditures remain down 5.7%. Kantar insight suggests higher budgets from movie studios and consumer package goods marketers accounted for the Q3 increase for network TV, while the year-to-date decline can be attributed to the loss of marquee college football and basketball programming to cable networks in Q1.

Meanwhile, ad spending in Spanish Language Television jumped 18% during Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, while syndication TV was also up 14.8% for the period. The only TV segment to lose ground was spot TV, where spending fell 5.7% year-over-year in Q3, and was also down 2.7% for the year-to-date.

Overall, compared to the corresponding periods in 2010, TV ad spending grew 2.3% for the year-to-date, and 3.2% for Q3.

The top 10 TV advertisers, led by Procter & Gamble, spent $7.3 billion in the medium during the first 9 months of 2011, up 0.1% from a year ago. The group accounted for 15% of total TV expenditures by all advertisers.

Most Other Media Also Post Gains

Outdoor spending slowed during the third quarter, but still registered gains of 3.2% for Q3 and 8.6% for the first 9 months. The pace of spending in radio media was more muted, but remained steady, up a modest 1.1% in Q3 and 1.2% for the year-to-date, driven by over 2% growth in local radio and network radio advertising.

Magazine media spending declined 1.2% for Q3, but rose 1.5% for the year-to-date. The top 10 magazine advertisers invested $2.7 billion in the medium for the year-to-date, a decrease of 2.8%. As a proportion of total magazine ad spending by all advertisers, the top 10 accounted for 17.1%.

Although the internet sector posted a Q3 drop of 2.9% compared to last year, overall expenditures for the year-to-date are up 2.8% compared to a year earlier. Display ad expenditures soared 15.8% in Q3 and 10.1% for the year-to-date, offsetting paid search drops of 14.4% and 2.1%, respectively. The 10 largest internet advertisers, led by General Motors, invested a total of $1.8 billion in paid search and display campaigns, up 11.1% versus a year ago, and accounting for 10.8% share of all internet ad dollars.

Newspapers Fare Poorly

The newspaper sector posted the worst figures of all media, experiencing a 3.7% decline in spending in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, and 3.8% decrease for the year-to-date. Local newspapers, despite robust budgets from local auto dealers and an uptick in financial advertising, saw a 4.4% spending decline in Q3, and were down 3.9% year-to-date.

Print Media Get Spending, Lack Consumption

Meanwhile, according to December figures from eMarketer, although newspapers account for 15% of all US ad spending in 2011, they hold just a 4% share of adults’ daily media time. Magazines also hold a much larger share of ad spending than daily media time, at 9.7% and 2.8%, respectively.

By contrast, eMarketer estimates that mobile accounts for 10.1% share of adults’ media time each day, but less than 1% of ad dollars. TV (42.5% vs. 42.2%), internet (25.9% vs. 21.9%), and radio (14.6% vs. 10.9%) all also display a higher share of adults’ daily time than share of US ad spending.

eMarketer notes that time spent with the internet excludes internet access via mobile, but online ad spending includes mobile internet ad spending. As such, the total of the ad spending share for all the media adds up to more than 100%.

From The Wall Street Journal. Full story here

Hits and Misses From Madison Avenue

Madison Avenue is closing out a year that saw corporate America begin to once again spend on advertising, following deep and painful cuts to budgets during the recession.

A faster-than-expected recovery was fueled in large part by the return of auto ads and a robust political ad market.

While the ad business hasn't fully bounced back to pre-recession levels, ad giants such as WPP PLC and Interpublic Group of Cos. are once again in hiring mode after slashing thousands of jobs in 2009.

Their clients, meanwhile, seeking to gain market share after a tough downturn, have spent much of 2010 blanketing the airwaves, mobile devices, the Web and the streets with zany and loud promotions. After seeing U.S. ad spending plunge 16% to $148.3 billion in 2009, ad expenditures this year are expected to increase 2.2% to $151.5 billion, according to ZenithOptimedia, an ad-buying firm owned by Publicis Groupe SA.

Most marketers this year worked to amplify their ads through savvy use of Twitter, YouTube and other social-media services, generating buzz—both good and bad.

Media companies and ad executives say the ad spending growth will continue in 2011 but the year will likely bring significant changes as companies continue to shift money to digital advertising. Companies also will continue to add new technologies to their pitches as a way to get their promotions to stand out. Watch for digital billboards that use facial-recognition technology to help companies serve up relevant ads to a person and TV commercials that will ask couch-potatoes to click their remote controls to learn more about a product.

From MarketingCharts.org

Ad Spending Climbs 5.1%; TV Gains 10.5%

U.S. ad spending saw some significant increases in the first quarter, with Q1 spending hikes “broadly distributed” across advertisers and categories, according to Kantar Media.

“That’s an encouraging signal for the market going forward,” says Jon Swallen, svp of research at Kantar.

Overall, ad expenditures rose 5.1% in Q110 from a year ago, to $31.3 billion.

Of the 19 media types tracked by Kantar, 13 experienced a spending increase in the first quarter.

Spending by Media

TV
Overall, TV gained 10.5%:
—Spot TV surged 22% due to a torrent of additional money from the automotive, retail, financial services and political categories. Despite the growth, spot TV has still only recovered to a level last seen in 1997.
—Network TV jumped 11.6%, due to a boost from Winter Olympics.
—Cable TV was up 8.2%
—Spanish language TV was up 7.2%
—Syndication was down 13.2%

Radio
Radio was up 7.4% overall:
—National spot radio soared 19%, with help from increased spending in telecom, financial services and auto categories
—Local radio was up 4.6%
—Network radio was up 3%

The Radio Advertising Bureau’s figures on radio growth were slightly less optimistic. The RAB reported earlier this week that radio advertising was up 6% in the first quarter.

Print
Print media lagged the overall ad market. Magazines were down 3.2% and newspapers slipped 3.7%:
—Consumer magazine spending fell 3.9%
—B-to-b magazines dropped 8.4%
—Local newspapers slipped 5.6%
—Sunday magazine spending jumped 13.7%
—National newspapers managed to gain 9.1%, primarily from increases at the Wall Street Journal.

Internet, Outdoor and FSIs

Internet (display ads only) gained 5%, while outdoor was essentially flat, down 0.4%. FSIs jumped 12.8%.

Full story here

If you are a small publication or agency or advertiser it is worth noting that big companies often have the same issues you do, but their problems are a lot bigger. 

From Today's Wall Street Journal:

Omnicom Group Inc., one of the world's largest advertising companies, reported significant declines in revenue and profit for the third quarter, battered by a steep falloff in global ad spending.

Omnicom added that the market had improved and signaled that it would be looking at possible acquisitions in the industry. "Client spending, while significantly down from 2008, is showing signs of stability," Chief Executive John Wren said on a call with analysts.

The New York company, which owns ad agencies such as BBDO Worldwide and media-buying firms such as OMD, said third-quarter profit fell 23% to $165.6 million, or 53 cents a share, from $213.6 million, or 68 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter fell 14% to $2.84 billion, just shy of analysts' estimates.

Full story here.