From Marketingcharts.org - full story here

Also see story below we linked to about the gross overestimates routine for online advertising.

US Online Ad Spend Set to Exceed Print (Update)

US online ad spending will exceed the total spent on print magazines and newspapers this year for the first time, according to a January 2012 eMarketer estimate that projects $39.5 billion in online ad spending, $19.4 billion in newspaper ad spending, and $15.4 billion in magazine ad spending. eMarketer estimates that online ad spending will continue its dramatic growth to reach $62 billion by 2016, while the print total will continue to decline to $32.3 billion that year.

US online ad spend is expected to grow by 23.3% this year, with double-digit growth continuing through 2014 before slowing to 8.9% in 2015 and 7.8% in 2016.

TV Growth Unaffected

As online ad spending grows, so will TV, albeit more slowly, notes eMarketer, which estimates that US TV spending will reach $72 billion in 2016. At that point, the gap between TV and online ad spending will be $10 billion, compared to the $28.7 billion gap seen in 2011.

Overall, eMarketer projects total media ad spending to grow 6.7% this year to $169.5 billion, boosted by national election campaigns and gains in mobile spending. Growth will remain between 3-4% through 2016, with spending reaching almost $200 billion by then. And while online will be a major driver of that growth, traditional ad spending will for the most part stagnate during the period.

Q1-Q3 ‘11 Ad Spend Up 1.5%

Total US advertising expenditures in the first 9 months of 2011 increased 1.5% from the previous year, finishing the period at $104.7 billion, according to December 2011 data from Kantar Media. Spending growth slowed during Q3, up 0.4% compared to 2010, after rising 4.1% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q2. Spending among the 10 largest advertisers in the first 9 months of 2011 was $11.8 billion, representing a 1.4% decline compared to the previous year. Procter & Gamble maintained its top-ranked position with spending of $2.1 billion through September, down 5.6% compared to 2010, although its Q3 spending was flat compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, expenditures for the 10 largest categories grew 3.1% in the first 9 months of 2011, to $59.5 billion. For Q3, the aggregate increase was 1.8%, although quarterly growth rates for 7 of the 10 categories trailed their year-to-date average. Automotive was the top category with $9.9 billion of spending during the 9-month period, up 7% from 2010. However, the bulk of the gain came early in the year, and from April through September automotive budgets grew just 1%.

TV Ad Spending Rises

Most forms of TV displayed spending gains in Q3 2011: expenditures on cable networks rose 6.5% during Q3, while year-to-date outlays grew 9.9%. Network TV registered its first quarterly gain of the year, as Q3 expenditures inched up 0.2%, although year-to-date expenditures remained down 5.7%. Kantar insight suggests higher budgets from movie studios and consumer package goods marketers accounted for the Q3 increase for network TV, while the year-to-date decline can be attributed to the loss of marquee college football and basketball programming to cable networks in Q1.

Meanwhile, ad spending in Spanish Language Television jumped 18% during Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, while syndication TV was also up 14.8% for the period. The only TV segment to lose ground was spot TV, where spending fell 5.7% year-over-year in Q3, and was also down 2.7% for the year-to-date.

Overall, compared to the corresponding periods in 2010, TV ad spending grew 2.3% for the year-to-date, and 3.2% for Q3.

The top 10 TV advertisers, led by Procter & Gamble, spent $7.3 billion in the medium during the first 9 months of 2011, up 0.1% from a year ago. The group accounted for 15% of total TV expenditures by all advertisers.

Most Other Media Also Post Gains

Outdoor spending slowed during the third quarter, but still registered gains of 3.2% for Q3 and 8.6% for the first 9 months. The pace of spending in radio media was more muted, but remained steady, up a modest 1.1% in Q3 and 1.2% for the year-to-date, driven by over 2% growth in local radio and network radio advertising.

Magazine media spending declined 1.2% for Q3, but rose 1.5% for the year-to-date. The top 10 magazine advertisers invested $2.7 billion in the medium for the year-to-date, a decrease of 2.8%. As a proportion of total magazine ad spending by all advertisers, the top 10 accounted for 17.1%.

Although the internet sector posted a Q3 2011 drop of 2.9% compared to last year, overall expenditures for the year-to-date were up 2.8% compared to a year earlier. Display ad expenditures soared 15.8% in Q3 and 10.1% for the year-to-date, offsetting paid search drops of 14.4% and 2.1%, respectively. The 10 largest internet advertisers, led by General Motors, invested a total of $1.8 billion in paid search and display campaigns, up 11.1% versus a year ago, and accounting for 10.8% share of all internet ad dollars.

Newspapers Fare Poorly

The newspaper sector posted the worst figures of all media, experiencing a 3.7% decline in spending in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, and 3.8% decrease for the year-to-date. Local newspapers, despite robust budgets from local auto dealers and an uptick in financial advertising, saw a 4.4% spending decline in Q3, and were down 3.9% year-to-date.

Print Media Get Spending, Lack Consumption

Meanwhile, according to December figures from eMarketer, although newspapers accounted for 15% of all US ad spending in 2011, they held just a 4% share of adults’ daily media time. Magazines also held a much larger share of ad spending than daily media time, at 9.7% and 2.8%, respectively.

By contrast, eMarketer estimated that mobile accounted for 10.1% share of adults’ media time each day, but less than 1% of ad dollars. TV (42.5% vs. 42.2%), internet (25.9% vs. 21.9%), and radio (14.6% vs. 10.9%) all also displayed a higher share of adults’ daily time than share of US ad spending.

eMarketer notes that time spent with the internet excludes internet access via mobile, but online ad spending includes mobile internet ad spending. As such, the total of the ad spending share for all the media adds up to more than 100%.

Marketers More Bullish Than Agencies on Traditional Media Spend

A greater proportion of marketers than agencies believe that spending on traditional media such as direct mail (25% vs. 17%), print (22% vs. 8%), and radio (18% vs. 3%) will increase this year as compared to 2011, with the proportions expecting spend to increase on TV relatively on par, according to a survey released in January 2012 by RSW/US. And although the survey shows that increases in digital media spending will outpace that of traditional media, marketers’ planned increases do not appear to match agency expectations: a higher proportion of agencies than marketers expect spending to increase in social media (89% vs. 63%), mobile (72% vs. 46%), SEO (66% vs. 48%), and banner advertising (55% vs. 30%).

According to December 2011 figures from Kantar Media, outdoor (3.2%), TV (3.2%), and radio (1.1%) led all media in Q3 2011 year-over-year ad spend gains, while internet and newspaper ad spending declined 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively.

 I wasn't sure who Millennials really were - so here is the Wikipedia definition:

Generation Y, also known as the Millennial Generation (or Millennials),^[1][2] Generation Next,^[3] Net Generation,^[4] Echo Boomers,^[5], describes the demographic cohort following Generation X. There are no precise dates for when the Millennial generation starts and ends, and commentators have used birth dates ranging somewhere from the mid-1970s^[6] to the mid 1990s, with some sources including as late as the early 2000's.

Great news for newspapers and direct mail but a little bit hard to believe. Full story from MarketingCharts.com here:

Most Millennials' Store Choices Influenced by Print Media

Direct mail (92%) and newspapers (91%) are the media most Millennials say affect their store choices, ahead of digital channels such as visiting a store website using a computer (84%) or receiving emails from retailers (78%), according to [download page] a December 2011 report from Nielsen. Data from “The Evolution of Circulars: From Print to Digital” indicates that when it comes to shopping, Millennials are more tech-savvy than Gen X adults, being more likely to have their store choices influenced by smartphones or mobile phones, social media sites, and retailer emails.

Printed Circulars Lead Overall

Printed circulars (direct mail, newspaper inserts, and in-store) lead the overall shopper popularity contest, with roughly 60% of consumers looking at them once a week. According to Nielsen, the only electronic vehicle demonstrating equivalent reach was retailer email. According to a study released in December 2011 by Epsilon Targeting, when it comes to learning about new products, American consumers also prefer direct mail: almost 3 in 5 report that they enjoy getting postal mail from brands about new products, compared to just 43% who say they enjoy getting emails from brands on new products.

Although high tech circular touchpoints do not enjoy extensive reach, they do see strong weekly usage: Nielsen data shows that social media (45%) and smartphone or mobile phone (39%) weekly use rates outstrip in-store vehicles such as print (38%), kiosk (24%), and TV (21%), with tablet devices also demonstrating healthy weekly usage (35%).

Digital preference rates are also strong when asking shoppers about the future: more than 70% of shoppers expressed a desire for basic digital delivery (store website using computer or retailer email) in the future, and about one-third wanted social media or smartphone applications. Nearly 90% wished to continue receiving paper at home or in-store.

Active Online Presence Critical

According to the report, 18% of internet users would not buy a personal care item without first consulting online, while 17% check online first before purchasing a food item. And although just 20% of store shoppers visit grocery/drug retailer sites, those 1 in 5 consumers who research online first spend approximately 30% more in the store.

Digital Efforts Lack Sophistication

Although most retailers use digital channels such as online circulars (93%), site product filters (81%), shopping lists and recipes (81%), and active Twitter feeds (78%), Nielsen analysis shows that many are not taking advantage of other, more sophisticated approaches. Indeed, only slightly more than 2 in 5 use approaches such as circular email subscription (44%), circular search ads (44%), and circular via Facebook (41%), while just 22% use circular item search ads. According to a Compete study released in June 2011, many online consumers now treat Facebook like a product circular: more than half (56.2%) say they visit the Facebook page of a retailer/consumer product company to keep up to date on sales and promotions, almost double the percentage who give the second-most-popular answer, learning about a specific retailer (29%).

About the Data: Nielsen’s findings are based on an extensive survey among an 11,000-shopper subset of the Nielsen Homescan panel.

Magazine advertising continues to be a vital ad medium, driving continuous business to companies with every ad they place. If you're going to buy magazine advertising, buy it the easy way. Some things to keep in mind when you're planning your next marketing campaign -

1. Magazine readership has grown over the past five years. (Source: MRI)
2. Average paid subscriptions reached nearly 300 million in 2009.
   (Source: MPA estimates based on ABC first and second half 2009 data)
3. 4 out of 5 adults read magazines. (Source: MRI)
4. Magazines deliver more ad impressions than TV or Web in half-hour period. (Source: McPheters & Company)
5. Magazine readership in the 18 to 34 segment is growing. (Source: MRI)
6. Since Facebook was founded, magazines gained more than one million young adult readers. (Source: MRI)
7. The average reader spends 43 minutes reading each issue. (Source: MRI)
8. Magazines are the No. 1 medium of engagement – across all dimensions measured. Simmons' Multi-Media Engagement Study find magazines continue to score significantly higher than TV or the Internet in ad receptivity and all of the other engagement dimensions, including "trustworthy" and "inspirational." (Source: Simmons Multi-Media Engagement Study)
9. Magazines and magazine ads garner the most attention: BIGresearch studies show that when consumers read magazines they are much less likely to engage with other media or to take part in non-media activities compared to the users of TV, radio or the Internet. (Source: BIGresearch Simultaneous Media Usage Study)
10. Magazines outperform other media in driving positive shifts in purchase consideration/intent. (Source: Dynamic Logic)